* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 55 62 70 85 98 102 105 104 104 97 90 83 78 74 69 V (KT) LAND 45 49 55 62 70 85 98 102 105 104 104 97 90 83 78 74 69 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 62 68 81 95 104 108 109 106 94 80 72 64 55 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 13 13 14 12 5 4 6 14 7 5 10 11 11 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 3 0 1 0 3 0 -2 -2 0 -2 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 57 49 44 52 62 19 342 90 136 135 100 162 145 172 185 186 183 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.3 28.5 28.2 26.7 26.4 26.3 24.3 22.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 156 158 158 159 161 158 150 147 131 127 126 105 87 83 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -49.6 -49.9 -49.1 -49.2 -49.3 -48.9 -49.0 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 82 79 80 78 73 76 76 76 74 74 72 71 68 64 56 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 21 23 26 29 33 34 35 36 39 37 36 34 30 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 27 14 18 37 40 44 76 87 103 101 100 87 67 69 35 65 62 200 MB DIV 83 73 86 115 80 81 100 78 78 114 54 40 19 31 18 15 14 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 9 8 -1 -5 -3 -8 -4 -8 -6 -1 -3 2 5 0 LAND (KM) 302 303 306 313 321 315 299 269 297 304 182 188 252 348 438 561 709 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.9 16.6 17.5 18.7 20.2 21.7 23.2 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.1 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.9 105.6 106.6 107.9 109.5 111.2 112.9 114.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 2 3 6 7 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 59 58 59 61 61 56 42 30 24 29 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 33. 29. 24. 20. 14. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 25. 40. 53. 57. 60. 59. 59. 52. 45. 38. 33. 29. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.5 103.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.06 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.57 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.95 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 25.3% 18.3% 17.5% 0.0% 19.6% 26.4% 37.4% Logistic: 0.5% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 4.0% 5.1% Bayesian: 3.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 6.2% 40.1% Consensus: 5.1% 10.2% 6.6% 6.0% 0.0% 7.0% 12.2% 27.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##