* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 57 66 83 97 104 109 108 108 104 96 90 82 75 69 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 57 66 83 97 104 109 108 108 104 96 90 82 75 69 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 52 57 71 88 103 111 116 115 102 89 76 65 53 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 12 11 11 11 5 4 6 7 9 3 8 6 12 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 3 7 3 0 -2 2 0 2 -1 4 3 0 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 58 46 49 38 48 19 32 94 62 161 127 178 174 167 191 248 223 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 28.4 27.7 26.3 24.4 23.0 21.3 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 155 155 155 156 158 161 163 149 142 126 106 91 74 71 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.4 -52.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.3 -50.0 -49.7 -49.8 -48.9 -49.7 -49.0 -49.2 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 9 10 8 10 8 11 8 9 6 7 5 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 78 79 76 76 76 78 78 79 78 73 68 63 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 20 23 28 32 34 36 36 39 39 36 35 31 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 30 35 25 25 42 51 60 89 120 102 111 87 71 50 45 24 38 200 MB DIV 78 82 73 106 133 91 98 89 87 56 85 45 19 31 40 10 11 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 3 6 0 0 -7 -7 -3 -5 -10 -3 -7 1 4 3 LAND (KM) 285 278 273 269 266 253 234 211 180 236 164 88 78 201 258 362 504 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.4 18.5 19.9 21.5 23.2 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 103.5 103.7 103.8 104.0 104.3 104.8 105.4 106.4 107.9 109.5 111.3 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 6 9 10 12 11 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 54 54 53 51 49 45 41 39 30 50 25 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 24. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 24. 29. 30. 33. 31. 25. 21. 16. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 17. 26. 43. 57. 64. 69. 68. 68. 64. 56. 50. 42. 35. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 103.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 23.9% 22.4% 17.0% 0.0% 19.6% 26.9% 48.4% Logistic: 0.7% 5.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3.1% 8.0% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 14.5% 9.3% 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 56.0% Consensus: 4.0% 14.5% 11.3% 6.8% 0.1% 7.7% 12.0% 37.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##