* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 71 62 55 48 40 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 71 62 55 48 40 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 71 62 55 48 38 31 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 2 4 3 8 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 1 0 4 3 7 1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 64 67 74 93 160 170 80 88 49 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.8 24.9 23.9 23.5 23.1 22.8 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 117 112 109 109 109 98 94 89 86 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 5 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 51 48 45 42 38 33 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 19 16 13 11 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 32 30 33 29 24 26 13 4 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -18 -6 -12 11 0 11 0 -9 -11 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 0 1 -2 -5 -7 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 219 214 223 214 221 247 205 148 100 48 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.9 28.0 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.7 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.7 116.2 116.6 117.0 117.5 117.5 117.1 116.7 116.2 115.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 5 3 3 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -21. -27. -31. -35. -39. -42. -45. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -23. -27. -30. -28. -26. -23. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -25. -32. -40. -47. -56. -67. -77. -83. -84. -83. -81. -79. -79. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 25.3 115.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 571.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##