* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 71 77 85 92 93 89 77 66 55 47 41 38 36 34 31 V (KT) LAND 55 63 71 77 85 92 93 89 77 66 55 47 41 38 36 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 69 76 82 89 90 87 78 67 55 45 36 30 25 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 19 12 16 16 17 13 10 10 8 6 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 1 -1 3 0 7 0 1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 58 77 79 79 71 76 64 36 50 65 90 81 113 127 89 94 96 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.1 27.9 26.8 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 159 158 157 154 156 154 141 130 123 120 118 113 108 105 102 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.2 -50.7 -49.7 -50.3 -50.0 -50.6 -50.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 8 8 5 6 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 76 75 71 66 63 61 58 55 51 46 37 34 30 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 18 20 21 23 24 22 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 34 48 63 55 50 73 55 56 38 49 46 40 22 20 25 9 10 200 MB DIV 36 43 68 47 46 25 19 33 -28 -8 31 28 -18 2 -6 1 -6 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 292 337 295 251 213 151 171 143 161 259 269 290 318 363 378 393 374 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.9 22.7 23.6 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.9 109.4 109.9 110.3 111.0 111.9 112.8 113.8 115.0 116.1 117.0 117.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 43 45 40 32 28 20 22 22 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 22. 30. 37. 38. 34. 22. 11. -0. -8. -14. -16. -19. -21. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.7 108.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 10.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 9.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.1% 59.5% 42.6% 28.0% 21.2% 29.6% 17.9% 14.9% Logistic: 21.7% 41.0% 19.1% 13.2% 13.5% 15.1% 12.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 6.6% 36.1% 15.0% 5.0% 9.3% 7.7% 1.3% 0.2% Consensus: 20.5% 45.5% 25.6% 15.4% 14.7% 17.5% 10.6% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##