* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 49 58 65 65 64 59 56 53 53 51 50 49 48 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 49 58 65 65 64 59 56 53 53 51 50 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 40 43 50 56 58 59 57 53 48 44 40 37 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 12 13 13 17 16 17 12 16 12 12 11 9 8 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 37 40 52 61 69 86 66 90 74 79 105 97 101 100 75 62 57 SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.9 30.0 29.5 28.8 27.7 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 168 167 166 162 164 159 151 139 132 127 122 120 119 117 114 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 80 78 75 76 75 74 73 69 64 60 61 58 57 54 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 16 18 20 19 19 18 17 16 15 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 7 27 35 25 40 46 42 50 49 40 34 35 31 37 31 35 27 200 MB DIV 33 51 37 11 16 7 10 46 10 -3 -2 5 -9 13 4 -14 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 -5 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 207 202 198 239 290 294 228 213 259 270 346 430 459 469 486 497 521 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.8 22.5 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.8 107.2 107.8 108.4 109.5 110.5 111.7 112.9 114.2 115.4 116.4 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 33 39 46 41 32 17 11 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 821 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 30. 30. 29. 24. 21. 18. 18. 16. 15. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.1 106.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/02/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.87 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 21.3% 18.2% 13.2% 10.0% 15.4% 14.5% 15.8% Logistic: 2.9% 19.9% 5.9% 2.9% 1.8% 6.0% 7.1% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.7% 1.0% Consensus: 4.0% 14.8% 8.1% 5.4% 3.9% 7.5% 7.5% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##