* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLLY AL052014 09/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 43 43 45 47 49 50 51 52 54 55 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 43 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 48 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 19 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 353 339 315 313 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.5 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 159 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 164 161 160 158 142 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 13 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 65 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -11 -8 3 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 9 14 10 1 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -4 -2 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 309 253 205 123 41 -112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.7 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 95.0 95.8 96.6 97.4 98.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 59 68 64 34 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.3 94.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.79 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.2% 9.6% 6.9% 5.8% 8.1% 9.8% 11.6% Logistic: 1.5% 3.8% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 1.5% 2.6% 3.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.9% 6.5% 3.9% 2.6% 2.0% 3.2% 4.2% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 43 43 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 40 30 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 26 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT