* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 65 59 52 36 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 65 59 52 36 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 64 59 52 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 45 50 69 76 71 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 10 0 -5 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 229 221 224 220 215 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 18.4 19.3 18.2 16.1 13.2 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 83 85 81 77 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 79 80 77 74 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -49.7 -48.7 -48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.7 0.9 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 51 51 48 45 45 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 29 32 31 30 27 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 127 141 136 127 152 200 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 52 72 50 38 68 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 15 -10 -12 -78 -142 -79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 633 490 621 846 1119 1336 958 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.0 43.1 45.1 47.3 49.4 53.9 58.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.8 49.6 45.4 41.5 37.7 30.4 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 40 37 35 34 33 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 43 CX,CY: 37/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -18. -24. -30. -34. -38. -41. -44. -48. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -12. -20. -28. -37. -46. -50. -55. -63. -70. -80. -87. -91. -96. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 4. 4. 2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -11. -18. -34. -53. -66. -76. -82. -91. -99.-109.-124.-133.-138.-144. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 41.0 53.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 2( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 65 59 52 36 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 66 60 53 37 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 53 37 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 53 37 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT