* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 76 71 64 44 28 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 76 71 64 44 28 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 75 67 60 46 37 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 31 40 53 69 74 62 21 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 14 12 4 0 2 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 228 229 222 227 214 215 201 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 23.9 18.7 17.7 17.1 14.4 13.1 11.9 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 106 83 81 79 74 71 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 100 80 77 75 71 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -50.2 -50.1 -48.7 -47.8 -47.5 -49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 2.4 4.6 4.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 43 51 51 46 42 42 55 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 34 36 36 34 32 37 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 130 146 135 133 204 216 229 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 64 51 72 50 39 87 78 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -36 -21 17 -5 14 -81 -68 -6 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 695 625 474 577 821 1360 1234 1123 1050 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.2 41.1 43.0 45.1 47.2 51.6 55.9 59.9 63.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.8 54.5 50.1 46.0 41.9 34.5 29.0 25.0 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 39 38 37 36 34 30 25 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 40 CX,CY: 36/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -5. -7. -12. -18. -26. -34. -39. -43. -46. -50. -53. -55. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -11. -21. -29. -32. -30. -32. -35. -40. -44. -51. -55. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 8. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -4. -11. -31. -47. -47. -55. -61. -69. -76. -83. -94.-100.-106.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 39.2 58.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 472.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/29/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 76 71 64 44 28 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 68 61 41 25 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 66 59 39 23 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 58 38 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT