* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 35 32 27 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 3 1 3 4 3 3 5 7 9 12 14 18 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 1 4 3 3 5 1 2 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 295 304 236 220 135 142 120 165 180 204 229 243 250 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 22.8 22.3 21.4 21.4 22.0 22.6 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 92 86 77 76 81 86 84 86 88 91 92 94 96 96 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 58 55 48 42 40 35 33 33 34 34 33 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 27 27 26 23 20 18 16 14 13 13 12 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 39 31 22 7 11 15 -2 -13 -21 -8 -9 -12 -14 -14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 2 4 23 32 -1 -15 7 -2 -1 4 -10 -4 -15 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -4 7 15 18 7 10 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1291 1343 1348 1349 1363 1347 1382 1422 1484 1563 1648 1738 1814 1822 1769 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.8 25.6 26.5 27.3 28.7 29.6 30.0 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.5 129.7 130.8 131.8 133.3 134.4 135.2 136.2 137.2 138.2 139.1 139.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 11 8 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -22. -23. -23. -22. -20. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -11. -15. -21. -28. -34. -39. -41. -42. -43. -44. -46. -48. -49. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.0 127.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##