* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 54 50 45 36 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 59 54 50 45 36 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 54 49 45 37 30 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 1 6 8 3 6 5 4 5 3 6 4 9 7 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 2 -2 -2 7 0 8 2 6 5 5 6 2 5 3 3 SHEAR DIR 353 24 215 244 243 200 179 215 176 182 166 188 213 222 247 245 242 SST (C) 24.7 24.4 24.4 23.2 22.3 20.7 21.5 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 111 108 108 96 86 68 76 77 81 85 89 91 94 96 96 96 97 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 61 60 57 53 48 43 37 32 32 31 31 30 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 35 34 33 31 27 25 22 19 16 13 11 9 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 87 77 66 46 27 1 -7 -1 -10 -23 -21 -27 -18 -7 -11 -10 -12 200 MB DIV -7 -4 5 11 -6 19 10 7 2 4 -5 -9 -6 -14 -10 -3 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -2 5 7 2 16 9 12 4 0 -2 -7 -4 -7 -4 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 1040 1103 1180 1255 1328 1309 1304 1299 1271 1313 1361 1434 1519 1621 1716 1792 1849 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.6 23.2 24.0 24.7 26.3 27.6 28.9 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.4 125.6 126.8 128.0 130.0 131.3 132.3 133.0 133.6 134.2 134.9 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 8 6 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -17. -21. -25. -27. -30. -33. -37. -40. -44. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -18. -24. -29. -32. -33. -33. -31. -29. -27. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -20. -29. -36. -43. -51. -57. -61. -64. -66. -66. -66. -68. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.0 123.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##