* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 70 71 71 74 72 55 39 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 70 71 71 74 72 55 39 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 70 70 71 73 79 79 61 42 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 12 10 7 12 28 47 72 64 71 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 1 -2 -2 0 3 15 0 -6 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 160 189 206 185 214 229 220 201 207 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.5 25.0 20.5 15.4 16.0 13.8 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 128 128 129 135 111 87 75 75 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 111 113 116 123 103 81 71 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -50.6 -50.0 -48.6 -49.0 -49.3 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.9 2.3 2.9 3.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 47 45 48 47 38 44 44 41 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 31 30 31 33 41 48 42 37 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 27 2 9 29 87 181 169 196 222 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 30 -3 5 43 59 71 74 59 64 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 4 9 4 -37 22 -22 -52 -19 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 531 515 516 657 659 631 444 473 901 1319 1275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.8 33.9 35.2 36.4 39.3 42.7 46.3 49.5 52.0 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.1 71.3 70.5 68.5 66.5 60.4 53.5 46.9 40.7 35.2 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 17 21 24 29 30 28 24 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 6 6 12 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -26. -29. -31. -34. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -19. -25. -32. -36. -41. -47. -50. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 9. 17. 10. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 2. -15. -31. -38. -43. -50. -60. -66. -72. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 31.7 72.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.76 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 579.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.16 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 12.9% 9.1% 6.8% 6.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.4% 3.7% 2.5% 2.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 4( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 70 70 71 71 74 72 55 39 32 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 69 69 70 70 73 71 54 38 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 67 67 70 68 51 35 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 61 64 62 45 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT