* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 59 55 46 36 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 59 55 46 36 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 70 65 60 54 44 35 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 2 4 4 6 7 7 6 7 10 11 11 14 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 1 0 3 6 7 9 6 8 6 4 2 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 1 329 334 48 215 230 204 170 176 163 189 202 223 217 240 230 238 SST (C) 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.3 23.2 21.5 21.0 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 114 111 108 107 95 77 71 76 78 81 85 89 92 94 97 100 102 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 63 60 59 53 51 42 38 33 32 29 28 26 28 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 35 34 33 29 27 23 18 14 11 8 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 91 80 65 52 21 6 1 12 1 -2 -5 -8 -10 -4 11 19 200 MB DIV -4 -14 -6 5 20 8 8 9 8 0 -2 -8 1 -9 -4 -1 1 700-850 TADV -6 -1 -1 7 11 5 23 8 8 3 1 0 -4 -1 -5 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 996 1044 1108 1182 1267 1336 1311 1302 1268 1290 1330 1382 1445 1523 1641 1808 1740 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.3 23.9 25.3 26.8 28.2 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.9 123.2 124.4 125.7 126.9 129.1 130.6 131.8 132.6 133.1 133.6 134.1 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 4 2 2 3 3 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -21. -26. -32. -36. -40. -44. -48. -51. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -19. -28. -34. -38. -39. -38. -37. -34. -32. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -20. -29. -39. -50. -61. -70. -76. -80. -82. -84. -85. -88. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.4 121.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 472.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##