* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 71 73 75 79 82 83 83 74 64 49 36 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 67 71 73 75 79 82 83 83 74 64 49 36 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 72 74 78 82 82 73 55 43 34 30 30 32 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 7 8 4 5 12 12 29 48 71 80 57 50 36 31 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 5 3 0 -3 3 8 14 5 -6 -5 -4 -7 -4 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 321 288 259 284 178 161 201 214 233 227 214 215 220 225 229 212 216 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.7 27.8 26.6 19.8 16.1 15.8 13.3 12.4 13.0 13.1 12.7 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 153 153 146 140 135 139 126 85 76 75 71 68 68 67 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 137 135 128 122 120 127 117 80 73 72 68 66 65 63 63 62 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.6 -51.1 -50.2 -49.3 -49.0 -48.6 -49.0 -50.7 -51.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 2.1 3.3 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 46 41 41 42 41 46 38 46 50 42 40 46 48 56 60 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 30 32 30 30 32 31 32 36 37 39 35 34 28 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 90 105 87 54 45 9 34 112 172 172 176 167 153 142 129 91 18 200 MB DIV 21 71 4 -10 18 24 54 36 70 81 48 73 69 52 19 18 15 700-850 TADV 17 15 14 9 6 -4 -2 -41 20 22 -53 -72 -8 -10 -5 -20 -13 LAND (KM) 742 843 783 711 656 657 742 682 462 688 1128 1464 1167 965 789 687 642 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 28.0 29.2 30.4 31.5 33.8 36.4 39.4 42.7 46.2 50.2 54.5 57.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.6 71.4 71.0 70.6 68.9 64.7 58.5 51.5 44.0 37.6 32.5 27.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 13 17 25 30 31 30 28 23 18 14 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 62 37 31 31 20 11 24 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -9. -19. -27. -33. -40. -43. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 9. 10. 11. 6. 2. -5. -13. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 10. -1. -16. -29. -47. -62. -69. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.7 71.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.73 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 511.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.9% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.9% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 3.0% 3.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 7( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 71 73 75 79 82 83 83 74 64 49 36 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 68 70 72 76 79 80 80 71 61 46 33 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 65 69 72 73 73 64 54 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 61 64 65 65 56 46 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT