* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 77 73 69 61 50 38 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 82 77 73 69 61 50 38 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 81 74 69 64 55 45 36 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 7 7 7 5 7 6 6 8 5 7 7 9 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -1 -4 -4 -4 0 2 5 6 6 1 1 2 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 24 64 64 88 99 105 160 165 174 172 191 215 229 221 244 237 238 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.1 25.3 23.5 21.8 20.5 21.5 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 131 125 117 98 81 67 76 80 80 79 79 81 84 86 88 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.0 -50.5 -50.5 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -50.0 -50.3 -50.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 71 68 68 64 61 55 52 43 41 34 32 30 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 44 43 43 41 40 37 34 31 27 25 21 17 14 12 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 96 112 116 115 101 76 46 22 9 0 8 -1 -3 -3 -3 2 2 200 MB DIV 49 55 47 39 9 -9 17 6 8 6 20 4 -9 -1 -6 -1 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -7 -3 0 4 5 7 13 6 6 0 0 0 -4 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 767 800 852 911 949 1066 1222 1274 1266 1262 1212 1203 1209 1240 1299 1394 1484 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.4 21.9 23.0 24.3 25.8 27.3 28.7 29.8 30.5 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.3 119.4 120.6 121.8 124.2 126.6 128.8 130.5 131.7 132.4 132.8 133.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 9 8 5 3 1 2 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -29. -38. -44. -50. -55. -60. -64. -68. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -23. -27. -32. -35. -35. -35. -34. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -17. -21. -29. -40. -52. -62. -71. -79. -84. -86. -88. -90. -92. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.6 117.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##