* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 105 99 93 81 67 53 38 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 110 105 99 93 81 67 53 38 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 109 102 95 89 75 60 46 35 27 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 14 16 14 4 4 3 4 3 7 7 12 9 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 -5 1 0 2 2 7 2 2 -3 -4 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 354 35 60 53 56 74 94 65 32 256 248 226 231 234 244 246 247 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 24.8 23.3 21.3 20.1 21.7 22.0 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 138 134 131 112 96 75 63 79 81 85 85 84 84 87 88 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -49.5 -49.4 -49.0 -49.1 -49.3 -49.4 -50.0 -50.6 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 75 72 67 66 60 59 54 50 42 33 25 22 21 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 47 47 47 46 44 42 39 35 31 27 24 21 17 13 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 92 114 128 145 146 120 101 70 40 20 3 17 21 29 32 29 25 200 MB DIV 99 72 47 68 63 20 -12 8 8 -4 16 12 -7 -13 -9 -12 -12 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -5 -5 -7 -1 4 5 5 10 4 3 -1 -8 -6 -7 2 LAND (KM) 767 796 806 834 880 973 1099 1252 1324 1318 1323 1273 1272 1278 1317 1384 1452 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.6 22.6 23.8 25.3 27.0 28.5 29.7 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.4 117.4 118.5 119.5 121.8 124.3 126.7 128.9 130.9 132.3 133.1 133.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 8 6 3 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -17. -29. -42. -54. -64. -72. -79. -83. -87. -91. -96.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -5. -1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -22. -28. -31. -33. -35. -37. -36. -35. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -22. -34. -48. -62. -77. -87. -94. -99.-102.-106.-109.-113.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.1 115.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##