* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 121 118 113 107 94 80 66 51 35 26 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 121 118 113 107 94 80 66 51 35 26 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 119 113 106 99 86 70 54 41 30 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 13 14 14 6 5 3 4 2 4 6 7 8 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 -4 -1 -1 0 2 4 9 6 3 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 349 360 31 33 51 54 62 67 68 159 301 223 257 222 231 228 240 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 25.8 23.8 22.4 21.3 20.3 21.6 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 141 138 136 122 102 87 75 64 76 77 79 80 81 82 83 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -49.6 -50.3 -49.6 -49.6 -49.5 -49.6 -50.0 -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 75 75 71 71 69 67 63 58 52 46 40 36 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 45 47 47 47 46 44 41 38 34 30 27 24 21 18 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 75 85 102 116 132 141 97 73 37 21 3 0 7 -4 7 9 1 200 MB DIV 90 89 49 34 62 66 -11 -7 5 11 -4 34 12 5 -6 -6 -8 700-850 TADV 7 1 -4 -7 -6 -4 1 6 0 8 2 8 2 0 0 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 740 756 775 781 808 907 990 1122 1240 1218 1217 1197 1151 1151 1171 1211 1236 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.4 22.6 24.0 25.4 27.0 28.3 29.5 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.3 116.3 117.4 118.4 120.6 123.0 125.4 127.6 129.5 130.8 131.5 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 7 6 3 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 16 9 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -19. -32. -46. -59. -72. -82. -89. -94. -98.-102.-108.-113. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -6. -2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -9. -16. -21. -25. -27. -28. -29. -29. -28. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -18. -31. -45. -59. -74. -90. -99.-106.-108.-111.-113.-116.-119. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.6 114.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##