* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 63 67 77 79 83 85 85 88 84 72 50 31 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 63 67 77 79 83 85 85 88 84 72 50 31 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 63 68 74 75 77 81 85 78 63 49 40 36 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 9 16 19 11 5 10 15 34 44 62 51 58 58 45 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 2 3 1 2 0 -2 0 3 17 0 -3 -9 -7 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 358 11 337 306 305 255 184 181 204 223 233 222 230 237 240 238 235 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.5 27.8 27.8 27.4 26.0 20.3 15.7 16.8 13.7 12.3 12.5 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 160 159 156 144 135 137 134 120 86 75 75 70 67 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 138 141 141 138 126 117 120 122 109 80 72 71 67 64 63 64 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -50.9 -51.5 -51.2 -52.0 -50.9 -50.2 -50.5 -51.7 -51.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 8 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 52 47 42 42 39 43 45 49 42 50 55 58 55 56 59 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 24 25 31 27 28 28 31 38 43 43 37 31 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 107 126 127 105 91 76 22 1 33 99 198 187 154 159 124 109 114 200 MB DIV 78 86 49 21 20 0 19 4 31 57 98 102 46 74 66 63 72 700-850 TADV 6 7 6 7 13 6 6 3 4 -33 46 55 -17 -5 -5 -7 -27 LAND (KM) 500 578 655 770 863 735 700 812 811 763 510 663 1068 1465 1228 991 778 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.4 26.0 27.0 28.0 30.3 32.3 34.2 36.5 39.2 42.5 46.3 49.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.8 72.5 72.2 71.8 71.4 70.7 69.3 67.0 62.8 56.7 50.5 44.3 38.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 11 12 11 13 17 24 28 29 27 23 18 14 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 37 53 58 36 32 9 11 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -12. -20. -30. -38. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 7. 8. 8. 11. 21. 28. 26. 15. 7. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 27. 29. 33. 35. 35. 38. 34. 22. -0. -19. -33. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.7 72.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.43 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.0% 10.2% 7.3% 6.4% 9.4% 12.2% 11.8% Logistic: 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.0% 3.8% 2.6% 2.2% 3.3% 4.2% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 6( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 63 67 77 79 83 85 85 88 84 72 50 31 17 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 53 58 62 72 74 78 80 80 83 79 67 45 26 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 55 65 67 71 73 73 76 72 60 38 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 54 56 60 62 62 65 61 49 27 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT