* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 54 57 68 72 78 80 78 78 76 64 56 47 32 20 V (KT) LAND 45 47 51 54 57 68 72 78 80 78 78 76 64 56 47 32 20 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 52 55 62 67 68 70 73 74 68 52 44 41 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 18 14 18 9 5 7 14 24 46 62 55 55 41 45 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 1 2 0 2 0 -5 0 4 3 -6 -3 -3 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 352 359 5 348 323 272 293 201 203 215 245 246 232 213 211 229 228 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 26.5 21.9 16.2 15.9 13.8 12.4 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 155 159 161 157 146 134 136 135 124 92 75 74 71 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 134 137 141 137 127 116 120 120 112 84 71 70 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -50.0 -50.4 -52.2 -52.9 -53.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 10 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 59 53 48 44 42 39 41 42 41 34 34 47 38 46 58 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 21 22 29 27 26 25 23 25 30 28 30 30 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 87 105 129 120 101 111 76 38 15 38 153 252 204 134 98 93 79 200 MB DIV 63 78 91 66 43 28 13 0 -9 19 32 31 8 53 68 81 80 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 4 7 16 2 6 -7 10 0 -5 29 42 -13 -17 -2 LAND (KM) 455 505 553 617 683 816 745 717 824 858 773 556 475 784 1172 1448 1163 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.8 26.4 28.1 30.0 31.9 33.8 35.9 38.5 41.7 45.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.9 72.8 72.7 72.5 72.4 71.9 70.9 69.4 67.0 63.4 58.7 52.9 47.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 8 10 11 12 16 20 25 27 25 24 22 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 34 46 67 39 32 10 10 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. 10. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -11. -20. -28. -35. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 8. 8. 6. 2. 5. 10. 7. 9. 8. 0. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 23. 27. 33. 35. 33. 33. 31. 19. 11. 2. -13. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.3 72.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.08 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 10.1% 12.5% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 4.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 2.6% 3.5% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 51 54 57 68 72 78 80 78 78 76 64 56 47 32 20 18HR AGO 45 44 48 51 54 65 69 75 77 75 75 73 61 53 44 29 17 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 58 62 68 70 68 68 66 54 46 37 22 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 49 53 59 61 59 59 57 45 37 28 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT