* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 132 130 127 122 107 94 80 66 53 40 31 23 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 132 130 127 122 107 94 80 66 53 40 31 23 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 132 127 122 115 97 82 66 52 40 33 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 12 9 14 9 5 1 7 4 7 11 10 15 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 7 5 11 8 6 3 4 SHEAR DIR 344 355 6 358 13 41 61 24 284 283 216 203 179 191 187 194 192 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.2 28.9 28.2 26.8 25.5 24.0 22.6 22.1 21.6 22.0 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 157 154 147 133 119 104 89 84 78 81 75 73 72 72 71 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.0 -50.0 -49.1 -49.8 -49.1 -49.3 -49.0 -49.3 -49.6 -49.8 -50.1 -50.6 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 80 78 77 74 70 69 66 63 57 51 45 35 29 27 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 44 45 47 49 49 48 45 41 37 33 29 26 22 17 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 59 71 80 86 101 123 156 124 97 68 41 12 11 10 -4 4 25 200 MB DIV 87 48 82 87 53 53 57 -6 -7 15 28 11 37 4 -5 -7 -7 700-850 TADV 6 6 5 2 0 -7 -3 -3 5 1 9 3 0 -4 -12 -10 -17 LAND (KM) 775 756 752 752 768 784 894 981 1113 1234 1198 1165 1095 1057 1028 1016 999 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.8 20.1 21.3 22.5 23.8 25.3 27.0 28.6 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.3 114.2 115.1 116.0 118.0 120.3 122.8 125.2 127.4 129.2 130.4 131.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 8 5 4 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 22 16 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -19. -32. -46. -60. -72. -83. -92. -96.-101.-106.-113.-119. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -8. -3. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -5. -11. -17. -22. -24. -27. -29. -31. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -13. -28. -41. -55. -69. -82. -95.-104.-112.-120.-127.-133.-138. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 16.3 112.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##