* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 48 43 40 35 30 27 26 22 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 54 48 43 40 35 30 27 26 22 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 47 43 37 33 31 29 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 21 21 15 15 16 24 25 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 1 3 0 2 -2 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 111 115 124 132 93 93 100 87 74 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 121 123 126 124 122 122 124 125 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -50.9 -50.3 -50.1 -49.6 -50.1 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 48 46 41 39 40 48 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 11 10 11 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 70 70 79 90 77 81 100 169 186 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -2 13 16 9 20 22 25 22 -10 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -6 0 -2 0 1 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2118 2039 1960 1890 1820 1724 1691 1674 1665 1657 1649 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.2 18.1 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.6 131.8 131.0 130.3 129.5 128.5 128.1 127.8 127.5 127.3 127.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 3 1 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -20. -25. -30. -33. -34. -38. -43. -44. -45. -44. -42. -39. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.8 132.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/24/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 448.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##