* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042014 08/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 46 52 56 56 60 62 67 69 69 71 72 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 46 52 56 56 60 62 67 69 69 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 30 32 36 39 41 41 43 45 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 16 11 7 14 11 16 8 10 9 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 2 2 0 6 5 5 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 307 342 359 349 356 360 345 323 343 287 292 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.4 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 154 153 154 155 157 157 152 141 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 136 134 133 131 132 133 135 134 130 119 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 63 65 57 51 46 50 49 51 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 15 17 17 17 15 14 14 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 23 15 50 80 88 95 43 40 13 15 -5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 17 22 53 55 39 7 13 14 14 23 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 2 1 1 1 2 0 0 2 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 234 293 318 348 377 418 471 481 412 372 402 351 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.6 25.2 26.0 27.0 28.2 29.6 31.1 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.4 73.0 73.5 73.8 74.1 74.4 74.8 75.3 75.9 76.6 76.7 76.3 75.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 44 40 39 40 43 43 42 61 46 46 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. -0. -1. -5. -7. -8. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 26. 26. 30. 32. 37. 39. 39. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.0 72.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 FOUR 08/24/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.8% 8.9% 6.1% 5.5% 8.2% 10.0% 13.9% Logistic: 2.8% 18.5% 10.7% 6.1% 2.9% 5.6% 4.4% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 10.9% 6.6% 4.1% 2.8% 4.6% 4.8% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 FOUR 08/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 FOUR 08/24/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 39 46 52 56 56 60 62 67 69 69 71 72 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 38 45 51 55 55 59 61 66 68 68 70 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 41 47 51 51 55 57 62 64 64 66 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 34 40 44 44 48 50 55 57 57 59 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT