* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 93 102 110 123 127 124 114 102 87 70 56 46 40 35 30 V (KT) LAND 75 83 93 102 110 123 127 124 114 102 87 70 56 46 40 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 75 84 93 101 109 122 128 121 103 85 68 53 41 33 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 14 12 15 12 15 23 20 18 20 7 3 5 4 2 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -1 0 3 0 1 1 4 -1 -1 -1 0 1 9 -6 SHEAR DIR 7 4 358 9 3 32 42 32 44 39 25 39 6 17 326 289 269 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.4 28.7 27.6 26.6 25.9 25.0 22.9 21.7 22.0 21.7 22.0 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 160 157 157 159 152 140 130 123 114 92 79 82 79 81 80 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -50.3 -50.4 -49.7 -49.7 -48.8 -49.4 -48.9 -49.3 -48.9 -49.1 -49.1 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 82 83 83 82 82 80 82 78 73 69 67 65 64 62 52 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 33 36 38 43 46 49 48 47 43 39 34 30 27 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 32 47 61 64 63 78 94 134 150 180 158 143 100 79 39 41 37 200 MB DIV 113 119 120 68 83 127 100 122 52 30 -19 -27 -12 8 -5 14 -13 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -11 -7 -2 -1 6 2 -3 -12 1 -1 4 4 1 -5 LAND (KM) 507 540 565 606 666 738 717 737 758 829 889 962 1090 1134 1112 1107 1087 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.5 19.7 20.9 22.2 23.6 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.9 107.9 109.0 110.0 111.9 113.6 115.3 117.2 119.2 121.3 123.4 125.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 62 53 34 23 24 37 20 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 79.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 25. 27. 25. 20. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 24. 23. 13. 3. -3. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 18. 27. 35. 48. 52. 49. 39. 27. 12. -5. -19. -29. -35. -40. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.4 105.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -35.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.95 -5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.4% 45.8% 26.9% 20.1% 15.1% 19.4% 15.4% 10.6% Logistic: 19.1% 44.3% 15.0% 8.9% 7.4% 6.5% 2.7% 1.1% Bayesian: 41.5% 72.6% 67.7% 52.2% 40.9% 46.3% 18.6% 6.4% Consensus: 32.7% 54.2% 36.6% 27.1% 21.2% 24.1% 12.2% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##