* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 30 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 11 13 13 26 27 35 37 40 43 46 32 23 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -2 -4 0 -6 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 -5 -7 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 238 268 276 259 275 258 256 251 227 220 216 225 229 229 236 246 250 SST (C) 22.0 20.9 21.4 22.6 23.0 22.5 22.1 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 81 69 74 87 91 85 81 84 90 94 99 102 104 109 113 115 116 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.0 -49.8 -49.6 -49.2 -49.0 -50.0 -50.4 -50.9 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 50 53 53 52 50 50 47 50 49 48 46 44 40 39 32 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 24 23 22 19 16 15 13 11 10 8 8 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 58 51 62 90 90 99 95 77 81 66 46 19 -16 -33 -31 -17 -43 200 MB DIV -14 -10 18 16 19 0 42 -25 -10 1 15 6 -29 -20 -30 -41 -37 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 1 2 1 3 17 4 16 3 3 0 -3 -13 -14 -15 LAND (KM) 1189 1224 1264 1306 1311 1314 1352 1407 1494 1561 1677 1798 1814 1760 1709 1646 1603 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.7 26.2 26.8 27.6 28.6 29.6 30.6 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.4 127.0 127.6 128.2 129.3 130.5 131.9 133.7 135.9 138.1 140.4 142.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 8 10 11 11 10 10 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. -7. -15. -23. -29. -35. -39. -42. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. -22. -22. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -15. -20. -25. -33. -42. -52. -61. -70. -77. -85. -88. -93. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.2 125.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##