* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 34 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 34 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 35 32 29 26 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 6 7 7 13 22 21 29 33 38 45 38 33 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 -4 -5 -8 -2 -7 4 0 SHEAR DIR 241 258 280 268 246 270 237 260 239 229 230 236 233 238 236 228 228 SST (C) 24.1 22.6 21.3 21.5 22.6 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.8 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 103 87 74 75 87 87 87 86 90 98 101 104 104 111 115 117 118 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -49.6 -49.6 -49.5 -49.6 -49.8 -50.5 -50.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 51 50 53 52 49 48 45 43 42 44 41 40 38 44 38 30 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 26 26 23 19 18 16 14 13 13 12 10 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 73 62 54 59 82 105 115 98 78 51 19 4 -7 -2 8 9 17 200 MB DIV 3 -15 -24 8 20 9 33 -7 0 4 15 12 -11 21 -10 -33 -29 700-850 TADV 4 0 -3 -2 1 2 5 4 14 6 13 9 7 6 1 0 -6 LAND (KM) 1160 1191 1229 1264 1302 1315 1347 1407 1482 1533 1641 1763 1831 1735 1648 1569 1530 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.7 25.4 26.0 26.6 27.4 28.4 29.4 30.4 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.7 126.4 127.0 127.6 128.9 130.2 131.7 133.4 135.4 137.5 139.8 141.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 10 10 11 11 9 10 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -10. -15. -21. -27. -33. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -21. -23. -21. -21. -21. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -13. -17. -23. -28. -35. -41. -48. -52. -59. -66. -69. -72. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.6 125.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##