* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 60 72 83 94 111 122 128 131 126 116 103 89 78 69 62 56 V (KT) LAND 50 60 72 83 94 111 122 128 131 126 116 103 89 78 69 62 56 V (KT) LGEM 50 59 70 81 92 113 127 134 127 111 94 80 66 54 44 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 13 14 13 11 15 16 16 11 2 3 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 60 53 27 8 32 47 37 13 9 25 45 52 60 113 315 182 278 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.1 27.1 26.7 26.0 24.8 23.2 21.9 22.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 162 162 162 157 158 154 145 135 131 124 112 95 81 85 89 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -50.6 -50.1 -49.8 -49.4 -49.3 -49.0 -48.8 -48.8 -49.2 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 86 87 85 85 83 82 79 78 77 76 75 69 68 64 64 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 24 27 28 33 37 43 48 50 50 48 43 39 35 31 27 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 42 43 49 62 82 101 120 156 170 167 158 131 113 92 86 200 MB DIV 102 121 103 108 127 101 130 153 112 60 50 13 -4 -2 0 18 4 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -9 -7 -4 -4 0 0 -2 -4 -8 -9 -6 1 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 504 505 503 520 548 584 675 688 698 769 815 912 956 1027 1164 1212 1266 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.1 18.0 18.9 19.9 21.0 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.0 105.0 106.0 106.9 108.7 110.5 112.3 114.2 116.2 118.2 120.2 122.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 57 56 57 63 54 25 27 35 11 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. 10. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 19. 31. 42. 45. 44. 39. 30. 23. 16. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 22. 33. 44. 61. 72. 78. 81. 76. 66. 53. 39. 28. 19. 12. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.2 103.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 15.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 12.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.37 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 11.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 11.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 9.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -48.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.96 -12.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.54 4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 6.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 63% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.0% 82.5% 62.6% 52.7% 43.8% 63.4% 52.9% 37.6% Logistic: 43.9% 78.8% 57.9% 44.7% 47.8% 56.5% 44.0% 26.3% Bayesian: 59.4% 91.0% 93.5% 89.4% 82.3% 90.4% 70.4% 32.5% Consensus: 46.8% 84.1% 71.3% 62.3% 58.0% 70.1% 55.8% 32.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##