* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 39 34 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 39 34 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 44 40 37 33 30 28 25 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 6 3 7 6 13 20 25 27 31 35 40 20 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 0 -4 1 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -7 -6 1 1 5 SHEAR DIR 168 239 243 272 259 269 268 243 256 240 237 235 244 245 260 265 286 SST (C) 24.5 24.0 22.3 21.1 21.6 22.9 22.6 22.5 22.6 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.3 25.0 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 107 102 84 71 76 90 86 86 88 95 99 102 104 106 113 119 118 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -49.7 -49.8 -49.5 -50.1 -50.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 54 52 50 48 46 45 44 43 41 39 41 41 35 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 30 29 27 25 21 19 17 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 86 80 69 64 67 94 114 103 92 65 43 12 -3 -20 -22 -44 -52 200 MB DIV -4 8 -21 -25 20 16 -5 9 -11 3 8 8 9 -13 -21 -21 -22 700-850 TADV 4 4 0 -3 -2 4 0 6 7 12 16 17 15 16 15 13 1 LAND (KM) 1139 1163 1193 1229 1269 1307 1316 1349 1410 1443 1549 1656 1781 1806 1695 1620 1569 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.5 27.3 28.3 29.2 30.2 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.1 125.8 126.5 127.1 128.3 129.6 130.8 132.4 134.2 136.2 138.3 140.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. -4. -8. -12. -18. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -11. -18. -22. -25. -26. -26. -25. -24. -23. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -26. -32. -38. -44. -49. -53. -57. -62. -64. -64. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.1 124.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##