* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 50 60 71 91 104 115 119 123 121 115 104 91 81 73 67 V (KT) LAND 35 41 50 60 71 91 104 115 119 123 121 115 104 91 81 73 67 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 51 59 81 106 124 130 125 116 103 88 74 61 49 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 14 13 9 15 11 13 12 11 13 14 14 15 11 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 0 -1 -3 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 24 26 53 59 41 29 28 14 355 24 23 40 69 62 93 131 227 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.0 29.1 28.3 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.5 23.9 22.1 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 168 167 164 161 158 154 156 148 141 134 125 119 102 84 87 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -50.7 -50.3 -50.0 -49.6 -49.9 -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 85 84 83 82 80 79 80 76 75 72 70 67 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 20 22 27 31 37 42 47 50 51 49 45 41 35 32 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 36 40 41 47 57 76 91 107 127 165 159 162 153 120 101 200 MB DIV 94 68 73 130 145 125 102 128 102 108 72 65 12 -30 3 -6 1 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 -6 -6 -3 1 -5 -3 3 -7 -7 -12 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 445 458 470 478 473 495 524 584 626 601 656 687 785 869 966 1118 1233 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.4 20.4 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.3 101.5 102.7 103.7 104.8 106.5 108.1 109.6 111.3 113.2 115.1 117.0 118.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 46 59 63 60 56 26 20 30 12 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 72.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 29. 38. 46. 50. 48. 41. 32. 25. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 20. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 25. 36. 56. 69. 80. 84. 88. 86. 80. 69. 56. 46. 38. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.6 100.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -26.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.94 -6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.50 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 48.2% 29.3% 20.0% 15.1% 34.4% 42.1% 50.7% Logistic: 6.6% 43.2% 24.0% 12.6% 13.6% 29.2% 58.1% 45.2% Bayesian: 2.8% 41.9% 42.9% 18.9% 4.6% 66.3% 67.0% 87.8% Consensus: 7.5% 44.4% 32.1% 17.1% 11.1% 43.3% 55.7% 61.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##