* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 58 56 54 51 47 44 39 32 27 27 26 27 29 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 58 56 54 51 47 44 39 32 27 27 26 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 59 59 57 52 47 42 37 31 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 5 10 14 16 16 13 10 8 2 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 1 1 -1 0 0 3 -2 7 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 77 65 79 80 61 75 84 83 6 301 274 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.8 26.1 25.9 25.7 23.7 22.2 22.6 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 129 125 123 120 124 122 120 99 84 88 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -50.3 -50.0 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 47 45 46 48 49 52 48 45 40 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 18 18 16 14 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 34 27 29 32 26 42 58 80 84 51 7 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 37 21 27 21 27 19 36 1 5 -1 -14 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 -1 1 -7 0 1 1 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2001 2032 2063 2102 2141 2227 2157 1960 1773 1603 1512 1400 1282 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.1 19.4 21.2 23.0 25.0 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.6 136.3 135.9 135.5 135.0 134.0 132.6 131.0 129.8 129.1 129.1 129.7 130.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -16. -23. -28. -28. -29. -28. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.8 136.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 22.4% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 6.9% 3.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 9.8% 8.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##