* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 64 60 50 41 32 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 64 60 50 41 32 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 65 63 59 50 41 35 31 27 24 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 5 6 3 1 3 8 2 14 18 25 27 32 36 40 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 0 1 -1 -2 4 -6 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 171 82 129 119 111 122 204 287 265 243 253 224 228 224 236 242 247 SST (C) 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.5 22.0 21.7 22.2 22.7 22.4 22.7 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 117 113 110 107 81 77 83 88 85 88 95 96 98 101 104 107 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.6 -49.3 -48.6 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 54 55 52 51 52 51 51 48 48 45 42 38 40 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 38 37 36 32 29 26 24 20 19 17 15 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 103 112 111 105 99 71 93 117 129 113 92 80 71 52 42 17 -10 200 MB DIV 17 57 64 -2 -9 -10 8 11 4 9 0 11 0 8 13 -7 6 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 3 0 0 3 1 5 9 6 12 10 13 17 23 LAND (KM) 1102 1098 1099 1118 1143 1206 1288 1310 1312 1347 1407 1451 1545 1647 1733 1831 1798 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.3 23.4 24.3 25.2 26.1 26.9 27.7 28.3 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.7 123.2 123.9 124.6 126.0 127.3 128.5 129.8 131.2 132.7 134.3 136.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. -25. -29. -32. -35. -39. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -9. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -20. -25. -27. -28. -28. -27. -26. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -5. -15. -24. -33. -39. -45. -49. -54. -59. -63. -68. -71. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.3 122.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 424.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 8.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##