* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 56 58 60 60 60 53 47 40 34 30 28 27 26 26 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 56 58 60 60 60 53 47 40 34 30 28 27 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 54 55 56 55 52 46 39 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 8 8 12 17 18 14 16 7 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 0 1 0 2 6 4 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 69 75 76 53 48 79 68 77 81 9 301 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.0 25.9 26.0 25.6 23.7 22.1 22.6 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 131 130 122 122 123 119 100 84 90 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.1 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 56 54 51 48 49 51 55 54 50 48 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 20 21 21 21 18 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 29 37 28 29 43 88 98 102 84 67 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 24 28 34 35 45 29 49 21 -4 7 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 2 1 0 0 -6 -1 -15 -2 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1960 1986 2012 2044 2077 2159 2272 2079 1878 1681 1549 1392 1269 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.7 16.6 17.6 19.1 21.1 23.6 26.6 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.9 136.7 136.5 136.2 135.8 134.8 133.5 132.0 130.8 129.9 130.1 131.5 132.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 4 5 7 8 9 10 12 14 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 6 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. -1. -4. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 3. -3. -10. -16. -20. -22. -23. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.1 136.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 20.2% 18.5% 13.4% 9.6% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 4.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.1% 6.6% 4.7% 3.4% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##