* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/21/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 62 60 54 46 38 32 26 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 62 60 54 46 38 32 26 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 61 60 53 46 38 33 29 26 23 20 18 17 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 5 8 6 2 4 7 10 12 17 20 19 26 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 0 -2 -7 -5 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 194 145 126 127 143 147 156 269 250 256 238 249 224 241 237 249 240 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.4 22.0 21.7 22.3 22.7 22.5 22.8 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 121 116 112 106 81 77 84 88 86 89 94 95 97 100 101 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -49.7 -49.1 -48.8 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 61 55 54 53 55 55 52 45 43 39 36 33 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 38 37 37 34 32 28 26 23 19 18 16 12 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 107 117 123 123 124 99 77 85 114 120 120 114 108 84 57 41 22 200 MB DIV 52 28 42 57 39 9 -15 -13 20 15 19 -3 -9 -3 4 4 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 5 3 9 8 11 15 20 15 19 LAND (KM) 1141 1139 1129 1123 1122 1146 1215 1298 1330 1336 1370 1434 1506 1535 1619 1708 1796 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.4 23.4 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.4 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.2 122.5 123.0 123.5 124.7 126.1 127.4 128.7 129.9 131.3 132.8 134.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -22. -25. -29. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -2. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -17. -21. -26. -26. -26. -28. -26. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -6. -14. -22. -28. -34. -41. -45. -50. -55. -57. -58. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.5 121.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 8.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##