* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 65 65 60 52 42 35 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 65 65 60 52 42 35 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 64 63 58 49 39 32 27 24 21 20 19 17 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 6 6 9 11 4 5 4 10 13 17 19 19 18 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 1 -4 -4 -2 0 -4 -3 -6 -5 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 45 157 166 139 93 119 125 184 248 245 238 224 260 231 242 236 252 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.6 24.9 23.6 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 123 120 117 111 98 71 77 82 84 86 89 95 99 102 106 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.1 -49.5 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 69 64 62 61 55 56 53 56 54 54 47 44 40 40 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 35 36 36 33 29 26 24 20 18 17 16 16 14 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 83 111 126 131 143 133 107 77 101 111 112 103 108 95 67 53 37 200 MB DIV 90 109 84 39 58 10 -2 6 -3 7 0 13 -3 -1 -5 -12 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 4 6 1 7 2 4 2 6 LAND (KM) 1119 1127 1128 1118 1110 1109 1154 1220 1298 1314 1365 1437 1545 1617 1740 1844 1735 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.9 24.9 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.4 121.7 122.0 122.4 122.7 123.7 125.0 126.4 127.8 129.3 130.8 132.3 134.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -21. -20. -18. -19. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 10. 5. -3. -13. -20. -28. -34. -39. -42. -44. -47. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.3 121.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 13.4% 5.2% 4.3% 1.6% 3.0% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 15.1% 1.8% 1.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##