* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 43 44 45 48 47 44 38 34 30 27 24 23 24 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 43 44 45 48 47 44 38 34 30 27 24 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 44 43 42 41 39 35 31 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 20 23 23 18 16 12 11 15 15 12 12 3 9 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 0 -1 2 3 2 2 0 4 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 61 62 68 81 87 69 122 54 75 107 99 95 33 305 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.6 24.7 23.7 22.2 22.1 22.3 22.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 126 126 128 124 121 119 110 100 85 83 86 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 59 58 53 48 45 53 57 55 57 60 58 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 17 18 18 19 20 19 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 26 34 52 65 92 100 106 141 135 98 69 64 40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 15 7 24 44 22 55 41 40 47 13 14 4 -15 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 5 4 3 2 3 3 -2 -2 -4 0 6 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2050 2023 1995 1986 1977 2001 2068 2149 2207 1979 1748 1536 1370 1273 1178 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.8 16.0 16.5 17.5 18.9 20.7 22.9 25.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.8 136.1 136.3 136.4 136.5 136.3 135.6 134.7 133.4 131.8 130.4 129.3 129.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 1 0 2 4 7 9 11 11 12 11 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 2. -1. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 135.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##