* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 43 44 45 47 47 45 42 37 32 30 25 24 25 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 43 44 45 47 47 45 42 37 32 30 25 24 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 43 42 41 40 38 35 31 27 24 20 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 21 24 23 11 14 7 17 16 15 10 7 12 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 -1 1 0 4 6 4 3 0 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 59 60 69 86 63 92 108 65 86 88 71 31 278 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.2 24.5 22.3 21.4 22.3 22.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 124 124 124 123 124 123 122 115 109 86 77 86 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.0 -51.3 -50.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 65 62 60 56 50 45 48 58 62 59 62 61 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 18 20 20 21 20 18 17 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 23 20 23 35 55 80 99 95 127 141 108 79 75 63 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 17 9 3 28 36 35 45 52 38 32 18 24 16 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 4 2 0 1 2 0 -3 -5 -8 6 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2125 2089 2053 2031 2008 1988 2003 2045 2136 2128 1893 1652 1425 1251 1092 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.5 17.1 18.2 19.9 22.4 25.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.1 135.5 135.8 136.0 136.2 136.4 136.2 135.7 134.7 133.0 131.5 130.3 130.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 1 0 2 5 8 10 12 13 14 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 2. -0. -3. -8. -13. -15. -20. -21. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 135.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##