* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 58 59 55 53 48 41 34 27 24 21 21 20 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 58 59 55 53 48 41 34 27 24 21 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 50 51 50 46 41 36 31 27 25 23 22 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 10 10 10 6 7 3 9 6 10 19 16 21 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 1 2 0 0 -6 -4 0 -2 -5 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 79 91 86 83 72 95 84 153 127 245 277 252 256 236 273 257 257 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 25.7 24.9 23.4 20.9 20.9 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 127 127 127 125 119 111 96 70 69 80 83 85 88 91 92 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 77 77 74 72 71 63 61 55 57 54 57 58 64 58 54 43 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 32 34 34 35 33 31 29 26 22 19 18 17 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 80 86 89 94 119 147 150 127 102 68 101 99 95 77 87 82 72 200 MB DIV 62 73 90 91 101 54 36 -14 24 15 -2 5 18 6 -16 -2 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 2 0 3 1 4 9 5 11 5 5 LAND (KM) 1098 1102 1109 1105 1104 1099 1071 1066 1106 1191 1239 1261 1318 1388 1466 1487 1557 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.0 21.0 22.2 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.4 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.1 120.5 120.8 121.1 121.3 121.7 122.5 123.6 124.9 126.4 127.9 129.4 130.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 3. -1. -5. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 11. 8. 3. -4. -11. -18. -21. -24. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.1 120.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 20.9% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 8.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 1.7% 3.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 9.7% 7.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##