* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 43 44 44 48 49 50 46 41 39 33 29 25 23 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 43 44 44 48 49 50 46 41 39 33 29 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 41 40 40 39 38 36 32 28 26 23 21 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 13 20 23 12 16 8 16 20 15 15 10 15 12 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 -1 3 0 4 4 5 9 2 0 -1 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 109 87 67 63 69 87 68 108 62 88 77 86 14 56 30 27 40 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.1 25.8 24.8 24.3 23.2 21.5 20.8 21.6 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 122 124 124 123 125 124 122 111 106 93 75 68 76 83 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 64 62 59 53 50 48 60 66 65 61 56 49 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 18 18 20 19 21 20 20 18 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 24 24 30 56 67 93 84 105 116 104 84 43 40 37 16 200 MB DIV 15 27 22 -7 2 34 13 76 36 71 24 49 20 8 0 -15 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 5 1 1 3 2 -3 -5 -8 -13 -8 0 -5 LAND (KM) 2180 2142 2105 2072 2039 1995 1975 1985 2087 2220 1971 1732 1585 1513 1489 1529 1572 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.5 17.3 18.6 20.2 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.6 135.0 135.3 135.6 135.9 136.3 136.5 136.4 135.3 133.4 131.5 129.9 129.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 3 8 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. -0. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 3. 4. 5. 1. -3. -6. -12. -16. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 134.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##