* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 57 59 59 58 53 49 47 41 37 32 28 24 18 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 57 59 59 58 53 49 47 41 37 32 28 24 18 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 55 58 61 62 59 53 46 39 34 29 25 22 20 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 14 18 16 18 13 8 6 3 9 11 17 24 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 -1 0 3 1 6 2 4 0 0 0 1 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 73 79 74 77 60 86 78 84 114 283 300 266 233 228 249 242 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.4 24.6 22.4 20.8 21.1 22.1 22.4 22.8 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 133 130 128 128 127 124 116 108 85 69 71 82 86 90 94 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 77 75 73 68 66 62 64 65 64 62 55 44 37 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 27 28 31 31 31 28 26 24 21 20 19 17 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 80 81 89 90 92 115 120 105 85 55 83 86 81 84 89 114 107 200 MB DIV 70 78 79 67 42 63 72 30 -4 12 30 15 39 14 -1 -10 -3 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 3 6 9 -1 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1105 1105 1108 1106 1105 1087 1083 1058 1046 1059 1122 1218 1244 1286 1377 1537 1645 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.5 21.5 22.7 23.8 24.9 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.3 119.7 120.0 120.3 120.7 121.2 121.7 122.7 123.9 125.3 126.8 128.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 8 9 8 8 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 8 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 7. 4. -0. -4. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 2. -1. -3. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. 8. 4. 2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 118.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 20.3% 19.1% 14.8% 9.9% 15.0% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 9.1% 7.0% 5.2% 3.4% 5.3% 5.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##