* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 51 49 48 48 50 48 46 43 39 37 34 33 32 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 51 49 48 48 50 48 46 43 39 37 34 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 49 49 48 47 45 42 39 35 32 29 26 24 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 10 14 19 21 19 16 17 14 13 11 4 19 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 5 5 6 5 -3 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 106 105 101 98 76 54 62 76 80 60 71 69 94 88 119 121 141 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.8 24.9 24.6 24.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 123 123 125 124 124 124 123 122 121 120 111 107 104 96 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 65 66 62 59 54 53 50 53 52 54 53 45 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 18 17 15 14 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 11 12 16 29 34 56 76 108 105 107 81 63 70 114 99 71 200 MB DIV -22 1 8 17 19 14 44 36 42 38 72 52 47 40 26 -14 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 3 3 1 -1 0 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 2273 2221 2170 2123 2076 2014 1993 1990 1998 2031 2074 2138 2221 2080 1928 1786 1630 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.7 134.2 134.7 135.2 135.6 136.2 136.4 136.4 136.3 135.9 135.4 134.7 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 2 2 4 4 6 7 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 133.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##