* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122014 08/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 47 54 59 63 65 63 57 52 46 42 37 34 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 47 54 59 63 65 63 57 52 46 42 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 37 39 40 40 40 39 36 31 28 26 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 12 15 14 11 17 12 4 7 3 3 13 13 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 2 2 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 64 67 68 69 78 75 45 82 118 93 112 169 294 224 247 236 233 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.6 24.5 21.7 21.1 21.5 21.4 21.6 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 143 140 136 131 129 127 123 118 107 78 72 76 75 77 80 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.4 -50.1 -50.4 -49.9 -50.3 -49.9 -50.2 -50.4 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 75 75 76 76 75 70 67 62 62 61 58 59 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 27 27 27 31 33 34 35 35 35 32 29 27 24 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 46 66 78 83 86 106 95 115 116 118 95 86 74 95 86 80 78 200 MB DIV 45 70 77 57 66 84 70 61 28 60 0 -4 14 12 -9 26 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 3 -1 -4 -1 -5 0 0 5 1 7 4 LAND (KM) 1051 1073 1086 1085 1087 1075 1039 1008 987 920 886 906 947 976 965 995 1016 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.6 21.9 23.3 24.9 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.0 118.6 119.0 119.4 120.0 120.2 120.4 120.8 121.4 122.3 123.5 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 6 7 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 10 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 21. 17. 14. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 20. 19. 14. 9. 6. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 33. 27. 22. 16. 12. 8. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 117.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 12.9% 12.9% 9.4% 0.0% 11.1% 12.3% 13.4% Logistic: 0.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.2% 4.5% 3.2% 0.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##