* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 42 43 45 47 46 47 44 43 42 41 39 35 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 42 43 45 47 46 47 44 43 42 41 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 37 36 34 33 31 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 7 8 10 10 19 15 14 17 14 12 9 10 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 1 1 1 4 3 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 87 111 126 127 110 113 92 64 84 69 97 89 86 70 94 108 119 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.5 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 125 124 121 120 120 122 122 122 122 121 119 119 116 108 106 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 59 61 64 66 62 59 54 50 44 46 46 48 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 19 17 18 18 17 18 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 42 38 32 25 51 50 69 76 109 110 109 96 108 133 160 200 MB DIV 27 22 9 6 4 1 47 15 67 32 47 28 53 53 34 17 31 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 2023 2103 2184 2241 2254 2162 2079 2014 1972 1951 1975 2029 2094 2137 2167 2055 1947 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.1 131.9 132.6 133.2 133.7 134.6 135.4 136.0 136.4 136.6 136.3 135.7 135.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 7. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.3 131.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##