* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 45 49 51 53 53 54 50 46 43 41 40 39 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 45 49 51 53 53 54 50 46 43 41 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 41 42 44 44 44 43 41 38 35 31 28 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 12 8 8 8 12 15 16 13 16 16 20 17 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 2 2 4 6 4 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 82 87 88 102 102 119 106 104 60 100 84 115 105 104 110 136 130 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.0 26.1 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 25.6 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 123 124 124 119 117 115 114 115 116 118 120 122 117 118 120 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 57 58 63 65 66 62 60 56 56 54 59 62 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 18 20 20 20 20 21 20 19 18 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 37 43 50 43 40 30 15 33 39 56 71 93 84 73 68 99 118 200 MB DIV 15 17 38 26 8 1 -2 37 25 43 25 19 33 39 34 47 53 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 0 -1 -5 -5 -6 -8 0 LAND (KM) 1807 1894 1982 2066 2150 2253 2258 2227 2193 2180 2189 2228 2237 2133 2025 1904 1784 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.7 17.4 17.1 16.8 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.0 129.9 130.7 131.5 132.2 133.1 133.7 134.0 134.3 134.4 134.3 133.9 133.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 6 3 2 2 1 0 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 10. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.9 129.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##