* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 43 47 49 52 53 54 51 48 45 45 41 41 43 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 43 47 49 52 53 54 51 48 45 45 41 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 45 46 47 47 45 43 39 35 32 29 26 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 12 13 10 7 8 11 14 19 20 18 17 20 17 12 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 4 0 3 2 5 2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 94 89 87 99 110 102 114 120 79 84 88 90 79 75 72 86 5 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.0 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 125 123 123 121 118 117 115 114 115 119 123 121 119 122 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 55 56 57 58 62 64 66 65 60 56 52 48 52 56 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 19 18 19 18 19 17 17 15 16 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 50 44 48 56 48 38 17 15 14 28 64 96 91 87 75 72 61 200 MB DIV 32 28 27 37 35 20 -9 14 54 34 26 24 34 40 34 40 45 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 9 8 0 3 5 8 6 0 LAND (KM) 1696 1778 1861 1948 2035 2162 2219 2253 2277 2256 2246 2246 2257 2162 2058 1950 1840 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.3 17.0 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.7 128.5 129.4 130.2 131.0 132.1 132.7 133.1 133.5 133.7 133.8 133.8 133.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 5 2 2 1 1 0 1 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 2. 2. 0. 0. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 11. 8. 5. 5. 1. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.0 127.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##