* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 53 52 51 51 50 52 52 55 53 52 52 52 55 60 V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 53 52 51 51 50 52 52 55 53 52 52 52 55 60 V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 54 52 49 47 47 47 47 47 46 45 45 44 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 13 15 16 8 8 9 9 9 3 12 9 8 6 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 -2 1 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 -2 0 3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 89 85 95 110 112 107 81 84 39 32 16 30 347 11 101 68 173 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 134 133 131 126 123 118 121 120 118 117 117 116 116 115 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 69 67 64 59 55 60 63 68 71 71 70 71 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 21 21 20 21 20 20 20 22 20 20 20 18 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 94 92 92 83 85 72 80 68 67 60 80 64 51 34 42 40 62 200 MB DIV 37 34 10 5 7 17 49 14 32 -3 32 39 48 17 30 14 31 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1077 1129 1190 1257 1332 1478 1642 1816 1980 2129 2216 2096 2004 1952 1931 1931 1921 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.5 17.3 17.0 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.7 120.7 121.8 122.9 125.0 127.2 129.2 131.0 132.5 133.9 135.1 136.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 16 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. 0. -0. 2. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -8. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -5. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.1 118.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 16.9% 12.2% 9.7% 5.8% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.7% 4.1% 3.2% 1.9% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##