* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 75 78 80 78 74 71 64 61 60 58 57 54 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 65 71 75 78 80 78 74 71 64 61 60 58 57 54 52 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 75 77 77 74 70 66 62 59 59 58 57 53 48 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 19 17 16 11 8 7 4 2 2 6 3 2 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 -1 1 4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 57 68 87 81 88 102 93 102 88 96 269 128 322 261 220 193 231 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.5 26.3 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 141 137 134 135 128 126 119 119 121 120 120 120 120 120 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 71 70 66 59 56 55 60 61 66 69 72 74 75 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 21 23 24 23 22 22 20 20 20 19 19 18 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 96 100 105 106 104 98 84 92 82 65 64 94 84 70 55 65 59 200 MB DIV 46 43 32 41 25 12 14 39 20 25 16 15 8 45 45 73 44 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 967 1034 1098 1168 1244 1414 1560 1704 1848 1980 2098 2201 2179 2108 2045 1992 1930 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.8 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.9 118.1 119.2 120.3 121.4 123.7 125.8 127.8 129.5 131.0 132.3 133.4 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 13 16 10 5 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):269/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 15. 13. 9. 6. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.1 116.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.11 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.2% 28.6% 23.0% 17.6% 13.1% 14.9% 12.2% 10.8% Logistic: 15.8% 14.4% 5.2% 3.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.6% 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 15.2% 9.6% 7.2% 5.3% 5.3% 4.1% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##