* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 44 41 37 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 49 44 41 37 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 39 34 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 19 18 17 18 15 24 17 12 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 0 1 3 5 0 -1 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 22 7 355 346 327 324 328 323 297 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.4 22.9 21.0 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 123 121 120 118 114 105 90 71 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 41 40 40 41 38 36 41 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -23 -38 -59 -78 -96 -114 -135 -109 -47 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -24 -29 -30 -24 -17 -11 16 -4 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 2 0 3 1 0 1 8 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1022 1058 1093 1139 1185 1275 1385 1506 1662 1851 1703 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.7 32.0 32.4 32.8 33.6 34.6 35.7 37.1 38.8 40.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.6 158.4 158.1 158.0 157.8 157.7 157.7 157.7 157.6 157.4 157.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 778 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -18. -20. -22. -24. -27. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -14. -18. -25. -33. -41. -49. -59. -68. -72. -74. -79. -82. -87. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.4 158.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##