* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 53 56 58 62 64 67 69 69 69 67 65 65 64 63 66 V (KT) LAND 45 48 53 56 58 62 64 67 69 69 69 67 65 65 64 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 53 55 57 58 59 59 58 57 57 56 55 51 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 15 16 13 9 8 6 4 3 9 9 6 10 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 -1 2 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 1 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 74 64 59 76 85 78 101 77 67 76 9 14 327 344 136 109 131 SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.2 26.1 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 146 143 141 132 132 132 125 124 118 122 121 120 120 120 120 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 68 65 66 62 60 60 63 69 71 74 73 75 73 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 21 21 23 22 23 23 23 22 21 21 21 20 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 69 83 99 107 106 106 102 88 65 39 84 80 83 62 52 38 40 200 MB DIV 38 43 43 25 23 38 38 44 27 11 34 38 61 58 32 13 6 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 777 852 937 999 1071 1223 1394 1520 1682 1859 2025 2174 2181 2097 2034 1982 1930 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.4 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.8 117.0 118.2 119.3 121.5 123.7 125.8 127.9 129.8 131.6 133.1 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 4 3 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 14 10 8 11 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 13. 17. 19. 22. 24. 24. 24. 22. 20. 20. 19. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 114.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 23.1% 20.7% 15.3% 11.2% 16.2% 16.0% 14.7% Logistic: 3.9% 8.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 10.5% 7.9% 5.6% 3.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##