* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 63 66 75 77 79 76 74 72 72 72 72 69 69 68 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 63 66 75 77 79 76 74 72 72 72 72 69 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 60 63 68 71 74 74 71 69 67 65 62 58 56 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 9 11 10 6 5 9 5 7 2 2 2 3 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 0 -1 -2 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 66 69 60 51 75 80 98 105 103 99 94 75 99 37 3 19 30 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.5 26.4 25.7 25.7 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 152 147 145 136 135 134 128 127 120 119 122 121 120 120 121 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 64 65 68 64 66 61 60 61 65 65 72 77 80 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 21 20 22 21 23 22 22 22 23 24 24 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 43 54 69 85 93 103 90 87 88 63 49 45 69 72 77 29 18 200 MB DIV 41 39 29 24 21 25 24 20 31 15 10 24 35 46 43 34 45 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -5 -1 -2 -2 -2 3 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 722 787 867 952 1020 1167 1332 1485 1626 1763 1915 2066 2193 2156 2097 2050 2002 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.2 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.8 116.0 117.2 118.4 120.7 122.9 125.1 127.1 128.9 130.7 132.3 133.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 13 10 9 11 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 21. 30. 32. 34. 31. 29. 27. 27. 27. 27. 24. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.3 113.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 31.1% 24.8% 18.8% 13.6% 19.8% 18.3% 15.7% Logistic: 15.6% 32.3% 16.6% 11.2% 4.9% 7.9% 3.2% 2.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 6.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 10.4% 23.4% 14.1% 10.1% 6.3% 9.5% 7.3% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##