* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 55 60 67 75 77 79 76 76 75 75 76 76 77 77 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 55 60 67 75 77 79 76 76 75 75 76 76 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 60 68 72 74 75 74 72 71 71 69 67 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 10 11 12 10 6 8 6 2 4 5 6 5 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 1 -1 0 -3 -2 0 -1 -3 -6 -5 -4 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 49 56 55 51 49 74 57 88 79 147 90 148 194 168 144 189 84 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.5 27.8 27.0 27.2 27.0 26.4 26.4 25.7 25.5 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 155 150 143 134 136 134 127 127 119 116 120 121 119 119 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 64 63 63 67 65 62 59 57 59 59 62 67 74 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 18 19 22 21 22 21 21 22 23 25 25 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 46 45 52 62 73 84 83 88 83 74 63 71 82 98 98 95 68 200 MB DIV 35 36 44 23 22 1 17 37 26 15 19 0 13 19 37 52 70 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -4 -3 -4 -1 -2 -1 0 2 -2 1 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 677 716 773 850 936 1073 1222 1383 1514 1650 1780 1915 2025 2113 2199 2141 2061 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.2 114.4 115.6 116.8 119.2 121.4 123.5 125.5 127.4 129.1 130.7 131.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 26 16 11 11 7 7 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 10. 13. 12. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 20. 27. 35. 37. 39. 36. 36. 35. 35. 36. 36. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.1 112.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/13/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 24.8% 22.8% 17.4% 12.6% 18.3% 16.6% 17.0% Logistic: 6.4% 17.9% 8.2% 4.9% 2.8% 6.1% 7.7% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 12.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 6.6% 18.3% 10.8% 7.6% 5.4% 8.3% 8.2% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##