* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112014 08/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 56 64 71 76 80 79 78 77 75 73 72 71 70 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 56 64 71 76 80 79 78 77 75 73 72 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 55 64 69 73 75 75 73 71 69 66 61 56 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 8 4 3 5 2 7 11 12 10 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -1 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 36 34 43 48 41 50 18 53 349 2 309 170 186 176 157 150 166 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.2 27.5 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 162 157 147 139 133 134 132 126 125 124 117 120 123 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 65 65 66 65 61 63 61 60 58 59 58 62 65 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 17 19 20 20 22 21 21 20 20 20 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 43 46 53 76 83 82 76 59 70 88 111 123 125 116 91 200 MB DIV 35 28 23 17 14 19 9 5 19 36 21 18 30 22 21 45 41 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 4 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 615 650 677 735 809 964 1092 1248 1396 1505 1619 1740 1870 1986 2092 2174 2216 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.6 112.8 114.0 115.2 117.5 119.7 121.9 123.8 125.6 127.2 128.7 130.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 30 26 18 9 12 6 7 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 29. 36. 41. 45. 44. 43. 42. 40. 38. 37. 36. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 110.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 ELEVEN 08/13/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 26.0% 23.3% 17.7% 12.9% 18.7% 17.3% 19.5% Logistic: 17.1% 37.9% 23.0% 13.7% 11.2% 14.5% 13.3% 10.8% Bayesian: 1.8% 21.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.8% 4.1% 3.5% 0.4% Consensus: 10.7% 28.5% 16.1% 10.6% 8.3% 12.4% 11.4% 10.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 ELEVEN 08/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##