* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112014 08/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 44 54 63 71 75 80 80 82 83 83 84 85 85 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 44 54 63 71 75 80 80 82 83 83 84 85 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 48 56 63 70 76 80 82 84 84 82 75 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 11 10 7 7 6 2 2 4 9 9 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 1 -3 -3 -5 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 38 47 56 67 49 49 62 38 50 16 115 92 129 136 161 185 227 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 163 163 162 152 146 140 135 136 136 132 129 128 125 115 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 68 68 66 66 65 65 64 62 62 59 58 62 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 14 15 17 18 21 20 20 21 22 23 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 41 46 49 60 75 77 88 84 85 94 95 87 96 78 77 200 MB DIV 25 25 31 18 20 21 12 20 31 22 23 20 15 17 -5 15 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 0 -2 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 524 626 669 712 774 928 1055 1176 1292 1418 1527 1612 1703 1807 1899 1990 2083 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.5 111.7 112.9 114.1 116.4 118.4 120.3 122.0 123.6 125.1 126.4 127.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 31 33 29 13 11 16 9 8 8 5 2 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 18. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 24. 33. 41. 45. 50. 50. 52. 53. 53. 54. 55. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.9 109.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 ELEVEN 08/13/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.88 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 17.9% 17.8% 13.6% 0.0% 15.4% 14.6% 17.1% Logistic: 3.6% 18.2% 8.7% 4.6% 3.6% 7.7% 5.4% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% Consensus: 4.1% 14.2% 9.0% 6.1% 1.4% 8.0% 6.8% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 ELEVEN 08/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##